Conflict-ravaged Burma Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is holding a staggered election nearly half a decade after it took control in a takeover, which sparked massive protests and spiralled into a civil war.

Observers say the junta, with China's support, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the costly deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of free speech, assembly or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for disrupting or opposing the election under a new law which imposes harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats urging people to shun the polls.

The military has been engaged on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year following relentless airstrikes enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive logistical challenge for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it difficult to predict a possible turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the results in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has urged negotiations to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a military representative stated at a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".