Irish Unification Referendum Must Not Become 'A Sequel to Brexit', Commentators Warn

Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."