Trump's Ukrainian Peace Initiative Represents a Gift to Putin

Initially, Donald Trump gave the impression to adopt a strong position concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following issuing warnings of "serious consequences" during the summer if Russia's president persisted hindering peace talks, the former president eventually introduced major penalties on the Russian primary oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action substantially hindered the Russian leader's ability to finance his aggression in the region.

However, with his newly presented comprehensive peace initiative for the conflict, reportedly created by US and Russian diplomats lacking Ukraine's or EU involvement, the former president has seemingly gone back to his Russia-friendly position.

Benefiting Military Action

The former president's initiative would essentially reward the Russian leader for attacking Ukraine while putting Ukraine's political freedom in jeopardy. Although strong declarations that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", significant aspects of the proposal actually undermine that very autonomy. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his real-estate experience, the former president persists to view the Ukrainian conflict as a simple border issue, as if giving Russia a section of Ukraine's land will appease the leader. Yet, Putin's military campaign is not simply about controlling a damaged area of industrial-devastated territory in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's clear desire to eliminate it so it no longer serves as an enticing standard for the Russian people of the democratic leadership that Putin's deepening dictatorship prevents them.

Territorial Surrenders

Although freezing in position the already separated oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would compel Ukraine to surrender all of Donetsk region. Aside from favoring the Russian Federation with area that its military have been failed to capture in more than a decade of fighting, this giveaway would make Ukraine's defenses dangerously compromised.

Donetsk is the location of Ukraine's much-vaunted "defensive line", the fortified protective structures that represent a essential impediment to enemy progress. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, leaving Putin a unobstructed way to Kyiv should he subsequently decide to resume the war.

Military Limitations

Then, in a step that would facilitate future fighting easier for Russia, Trump would require Ukraine to reduce the size of its troops from their current approximately 800,000 troops to a cap of six hundred thousand. Notably, the initiative sets no similar restrictions on the invading army.

Apparently as a concession to Putin's efforts to characterize the nation's legitimate leadership as extremists, Trump's plan declares: "All extremist belief system and actions must be rejected and banned." Apparently to highlight this element, it insists that "The nation will hold political contests in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, the proposal places no condition that the Russian leader jeopardize his dictatorship by conducting elections in Russia.

Protection Commitments

To be sure, the plan has Russia pledge not to "enter other states" and to "incorporate in regulation its stance of non-aggression towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". Yet taking into account that the Russian leadership has breached comparable treaties in the history – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government pledged to respect Ukraine's sovereignty in return for surrendering its historical atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia agreed to a ceasefire and a handback of captured areas in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – for what reason should we believe Putin now?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on external defense commitments. Although the plan threatens a "strong unified military response" in case Russia resume its invasion, and states that "Ukraine will receive dependable protection assurances", the particulars range from unclear to alarming. The proposal would not only block Ukraine accession to NATO but also preclude member states from stationing military personnel on the nation's land, thus blocking the security presence, presumptively led by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to prevent Russia from rebuilding his weakened troops, restocking, and attacking again.

Global Reaction

An additional supplementary accord apparently would provide Ukraine with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any future "serious, deliberate, and sustained armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an assault jeopardizing the tranquility of the Western nations." This indicates a armed reaction. But in contrast to a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's primary protection against additional hostilities – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would hinge on the dedication of alliance members, like the US administration, to act with force to Putin's attacks, something they have {not